Will Australia Go Into A Recession In 2025?

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Arielle Executive - Sydney, Melbourne, New York

Last updated: March 25th, 2025

will australia go into a recession
Arielle Executive - Sydney, Melbourne, New York

Last updated: March 25th, 2025

Reading Time: 12 minutes

If you’re one of many Australians affected by higher interest rates and high inflation — with income growth that’s well short of the rising cost of living — you might feel that we’re definitely in the midst of a widespread downturn in the economy.

But do economists agree that Australia is in a recession?

While there are no conclusive diagnostic criteria for determining when Australia’s economy is in recession, there are guiding indicators.

Let’s explore what a recession means and how Australia’s economy will perform in 2025.

Key Takeaways:
Australia emerged from a ‘per capita’ recession in March 2025, after seven straight quarters of declines.
Globally, advanced economies continue to face recession as they fight to curb inflation — which poses additional risk to Australia.
Revised forecasts from the RBA indicate unemployment will remain low, and our GDP growth will remain positive.

What Does A ‘Technical’ Recession Mean?

If a country’s economy experiences weak or negative growth for six consecutive months, some economists would call it a technical recession.

Above: Economic growth has cooled sharply after the RBA hit the brakes.

The sustained drop in economic growth is measured by the change in gross domestic product (GDP) produced by a country, adjusted for inflation (also known as real GDP).

Important!

Negative growth over two quarters is NOT the definitive yardstick of an economy’s health.

Reduced production is an important indicator — but many global economists also take into account factors including:

  • Employment levels.
  • Wage growth.
  • Manufacturing outputs.
  • Retail sales.
  • Consumer sentiment.

In Australia, a prolonged decline in GDP combined with a substantial increase in unemployment is generally agreed to signal a recession.

Above: The economy contracts and recovers as part of a normal business cycle. The central bank will adopt a loose monetary policy to prevent a significant decline in economic growth.

This occurs when the business cycle contracts from a peak of economic activity and high prices, leading to less consumer demand and businesses trimming their staff levels.

(Related: Interest Rate Forecast: When Will RBA Cut Rates?)

Will High Interest Rates Lead To A Recession?

A number of countries experienced recession or were on the brink due to the slow economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Many central banks committed to raising interest rates to stifle inflation — and policy easing, only commenced in mid-2024. Or in Australia’s case, in February 2025 when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reduced the cash rate to 4.10% after it sat at 4.35% for more than 12 months.

Questions arose about whether central banks had left rates too high for too long.

Important!

Efforts to cool demand also contribute to a flattening of economic growth. The trick is getting the balance right, to avoid entrenched economic weakness.

For instance:

  • The US had a recession scare in August 2024, when unemployment spiked and met the conditions of the recession-predictive ‘Sahm rule’, triggering significant stock market falls around the globe. The US Federal Reserve initiated its first rate cut in four years — an aggressive 0.5% reduction — at its September 2024 meeting.
  • The UK’s GDP grew in early 2024, bringing the country out of a recession in late 2023 — but then slowed again. Inflation slowed to 2% in May of that year, but the UK's economy experienced zero growth between July and September 2024. The Bank of England cut rates to 5.00% in August — its first reduction since March 2020.
  • Germany narrowly avoided a technical recession last year. Its economy contracted by 0.2% in the final quarter of 2024, and still looks shaky. Annual growth has been negative for two consecutive years. The European Central Bank (ECB) was one of the first to cut rates in mid-2024 and made its sixth cash rate cut in March 2025 in an attempt to spark growth.

Most central banks remain cautious as they strive to keep a lid on inflation, especially given the increased geopolitical unrest and policy uncertainty.

In January, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth at a below-average 3.3% in 2025, highlighting how countries may struggle to find a trade-off between inflation and stimulating activity:

“Policy-generated disruptions to the ongoing disinflation process could interrupt the pivot to easing monetary policy, with implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability.” — IMF, World Economic Outlook Update January 2025.

But President Trump has taken us on a wild ride since then, with changeable policy messaging, sweeping tariffs and job cuts that have spooked share markets.

In February 2025, the Bank of England halved its growth forecast for 2025, revising an earlier estimate of 1.5% growth rate to just 0.75%. Inflationary pressure from wages, energy costs and the impact of US tariffs are of concern.

Here in Australia, the RBA’s outlook from February 2025 anticipates “limited effects on domestic growth and inflation from recent announcements related to international trade.” However, it depends on how the trade war plays out, especially its impact on China.

Our GDP growth is expected to lift and reach 2.4% by year-end.

Compared to many major economies, Australia didn’t raise rates as high. Our cash rate ended 2024 at 4.35%, which was its peak.

Important!

Speaking on the RBA’s decision to cut rates in February 2025, Governor Michele Bullock conceded the central bank may have moved too slowly to squash inflation back in 2022.

“Arguably, we were late raising interest rates on the way up; we didn’t respond as quickly as we should have to rising inflation,” she recently told a parliamentary committee.

How Does Global Instability Impact Australia's Economy?

A contraction in economic activity domestically is heavily contingent on how our major trading partners fare — particularly the US and China.

  • China’s property sector woes continue, and its projected GDP growth in 2025 is 4.5-4.6% (compared to a 5% growth rate in 2024). The Chinese government unveiled a plan to drive domestic demand in March, but there have been few concrete funding commitments.
  • The US economy's growth decreased to 2.3% in Q1 2025, down from 3.1% in Q4 2024. In March 2025, the US Federal Reserve held interest rates at 4.5% and lowered its GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.7%, with Chairman Jerome Powell citing “really high uncertainty”.

Recession fears have re-ignited in the world’s largest economy.

Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said the US economy came into 2025 performing exceptionally, but uncertainty created by Trump’s approach had slowed growth and elevated recession risk just three months later.

“I would put the probability that the US economy enters into a recession sometime in the coming year at about 35%. So well less than half, which is great — but 35% is uncomfortably high.” — Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics.

Inflation is back on the rise in the US, with an annual rise of 2.8% recorded in February 2025.

The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) for January showed a 2.5% annual rise in prices paid by consumers, compared to 2.2% six months prior in August 2024. PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

AMP’s head of investment strategy, Dr Shane Oliver, said Trump’s policies posed new risks to global business conditions that could determine whether Australia slides into recession.

He pointed to global Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) — surveys of purchasing managers at businesses — as a key warning indicator.

“Right now, they are at okay levels, but they are softening again. And this softening is being driven by the US!” Oliver said. 

Once such PMI in the US, the ISM manufacturing survey released in February, found a marginal expansion of activity but highlighted a number of indicators of weakening demand, including:

  • The number of new orders had declined.
  • Manufacturing jobs contracted as companies let staff go.

The performance of the US and Chinese economies also acts as a lever for the value of the Australian dollar.

  • As the greenback strengthens, the AUD becomes less attractive to investors.
  • The AUD is considered a proxy of the Chinese economy because such a huge share of our exports go to China.

When the AUD’s purchasing power is reduced, it can further weaken economic conditions.

What Is Australia's Current Rate Of Economic Growth?

Australian National Accounts figures released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the December quarter of 2024 show that real GDP rose 0.6% for the quarter and 1.3% over the year.

Quarterly changes in the GDP throughout 2023 and 2024 have been in the positive territory.

Sept 23 - Dec 23Dec 23 -March 24March 24 - June 24Jun 24 - Sep 24Sep 24 - Dec 24Annual Dec 23- Dec 24)
GDP0.10.20.20.30.61.0
GDP Per Capita-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.20.1-0.7

However, when we look at the GDP per capita, which better reflects economic output in relation to our nation’s population — it was clearly in the negative for most of last year.

Bloomberg reported  the March 2024 quarter result was the deepest downturn in GDP-per-person terms — outside the COVID era — since 1991.

Many commentators had considered Australia to be in a ‘per capita’ recession.

A record seven consecutive quarters of negative per capita GDP growth ended with the release of the December quarter results in March.

Oxford Economics head of macroeconomic forecasting, Sean Langcake, told The Australian newspaper the data meant the “low point” of our economic cycle had passed — and growth would be spurred by a rate-cutting cycle, real wage gains and continued low unemployment.

But he warned that GDP growth was still too reliant on government spending and migration.

“Unless more is done to encourage private sector growth and investment, there’s limited upside to the economic turnaround, particularly given the global economic environment appears to be darkening.” — Sean Langcake, Oxford Economics.

What Is A ‘Per Capita’ Recession?

The average GDP per Australian resident was on the decline between mid-2023 and the end of 2024. That means each individual's living standards were getting worse.

GDP per capita is a helpful measure because the overall GDP doesn’t account for how increased population — such as Australia’s recent uptick in immigration — influences how evenly national income is spread across households or communities.

Unless the whole pie grows proportionally, more people means less income per person. 

So, while economic growth at the national level isn’t going backwards (yet), times are tough for many families.

How Migration Can Fuel Negative Growth.

ABS data on overseas migration into Australia for the 2022-23 financial year shows a net gain of 518,000 people.

There was a 73% increase in migrant arrivals from the year prior.

Important!

A sharp rise in net overseas migration kept the Australian economy from experiencing a ‘technical recession’, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative aggregate GDP growth.

ABS figures released in September 2024 show the net overseas migration in the 12 months to March 2024 was 509,800 people.

Australia’s population officially passed the 27 million mark in March 2024.

More recent figures show migration has eased. For the 2023-24 financial year, net overseas migration was 446,000, with a 10% decrease in migrant arrivals from a year earlier.

Population growth is a double-edged sword.

It can be critical for filling skill shortages that boost economic activity, but it also increases demand, which puts pressure on the price of housing and other goods and services.  

Evidence Of Australia’s ‘Per Capita’ Recession.

There are clear signs of this ‘hidden’ recession, most notably in the way many Aussies tightened household spending. 

Consumer sentiment has also been low — 2023 was the second-worst calendar year on record for sentiment (going back to 1974).

But confidence is increasing according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment. In March 2025, consumer sentiment lifted to a three-year high, with consumers no longer fearing the RBA will hike rates.

The wage price index saw an increase in 2024, but it didn’t compensate for inflation’s dampening of Aussies’ purchasing power.

You’ll have noticed that more of your pay-cheque is needed to cover essential items like rent, mortgage repayments, groceries, utilities, bills, insurance, healthcare, and fuel.

Prices have moved to a high level with no hope of them being wound back.

Important!

National Accounts data shows that discretionary spending, splurges on non-essentials, is showing signs of recovery. It grew by 0.4% in the December 2024 quarter, buoyed by Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales.

Aussies’ saving-to-income ratio is also rising. It was 2.8% at the end of 2023 compared to 3.8% at the end of 2024.

Above: Australians are still struggling to save.

Is Australia’s Quality Of Life In Decline?

With wages not keeping pace with inflation, less disposable income and less ability to tuck away savings, life has become much harder for many Aussies.

Research from market research firm Roy Morgan shows that 28.9% of Australians were at risk of ‘mortgage stress’ in the three months to January 2025.

The number of mortgage holders struggling to meet mortgage repayments has increased by 826,000 since RBA’s rate hiking cycle began in May 2022.

Of course, it’s thought that the recent rate cut will have provided some breathing room for many households.

It’s becoming a major health issue, too.

People are struggling to pay for healthy food and healthcare, and many people are highly stressed and yet forced to work more to earn more.

Important!

The Australian Unity Wellbeing Index (AUWI) report by Deakin University — which has run for 24 years — found that people’s satisfaction with life in Australia reached a record low in 2024.

People in low income households were more likely to be experiencing lower wellbeing or facing mental distress.

“Above all else, Australians’ satisfaction with their ability to afford the things they need was the strongest factor differentiating high and low subjective wellbeing…” — Australian Unity Wellbeing Index (AUWI) 2024.

Everyone at the margins is being squeezed.

Australian businesses, especially consumer-facing ones, are also feeling the brunt of inflation.

NAB’s monthly survey  of businesses in February 2025 showed confidence was in the negative territory and below average. 

“This was despite the improvement seen in Q4 GDP data and the RBA’s first rate cut, which suggests that businesses continue to be cautious about the outlook.” — Alan Oster, NAB Chief Economist.

Margins are still under pressure despite easing conditions. The survey found:

  • Labour cost growth slowed to 1.5% (from 1.7% in January).
  • Purchase cost growth increased to 1.5% up from 1.1%.

Is Australia Going Into A Recession?

Pessimism about a recession is high among Australians.

The Dye & Durham Australian Market Pulse survey   released in October 2024, which involved more than 1,600 people, found 57% believe Australia was in recession or would enter a recession within a year.

But the government and banking sector generally believe we’ll avoid a recession.

The prediction for 2025 is for below trend but still positive economic growth and the continuation of RBA's rate-cutting cycle that started in February 2025.

A strong rise in unemployment — typically associated with a recession — is not foreseen.

Key forecasts from the RBA out to December 2025 include:

  • GDP growth of 2.4% (revised up from 2.3%).
  • Unemployment rate of 4.2% (It’s currently 4.1%).
  • CPI inflation of 3.7% and trimmed mean of 2.7%.

Domestic demand looked to be cooling earlier in 2024, but retail sales saw an annual rise of 3.8% between January 2024 and January 2025.

Naysayers like Judo Bank's Chief Economic Advisor Warren Hogan have flagged that raising rates would be more effective than government cost-of-living subsidies as a means to deal with inflation and manage the economy.

“I think we are on a pathway to an economic crisis at the moment. Whether that’s a severe recession and the dimensions of it, I don’t know, but we cannot keep going down this path.” — Warren Hogan, Judo Bank.

Of course, if the US did slide into recession, it could hamper global growth — the ripple effects on stock markets and demand for our exports would impact growth in Australia too.

Independent economist Saul Eslake said a further significant weakening of China’s economy, our biggest export market, would impact GDP.

“If we were to see them (exports) fall or if we were to see, for example, the price of iron ore fall significantly… then that would have far more serious consequences for Australia than a recession in the United States,” he said.

How Did Australia Fare In Past Recessions?

Recessions vary in severity and duration. How sharply growth slides and for how long depends on the impetus for the decline and how policy-makers respond.

Paul Keating famously said Australia’s economic downturn in the early 90s — which lasted about one year — was “the recession we had to have.”

Since then, Australia has seen one of the longest stretches of economic growth in modern history.

Australia’s strong population growth, supported through migration, has been an important reason for the nation’s continued growth throughout various ups and downs in global conditions.

Global Financial Crisis Put A Handbrake On Economic Growth.

Many economies worldwide went into recession during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

Australia avoided a technical recession at the time, but certainly felt the impact of the incident — especially given the damage done in the US, one of our biggest trading partners.

Growth slowed in Australia, unemployment reached 5.75%, the Aussie dollar lost value, and equity prices declined sharply to reduce the wealth of Australian households by nearly 10% by March 2009.

Covid Pandemic Strained The Australian Economy.

More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic triggered one of the worst ever global recessions, as lockdowns and travel bans stymied growth and led to significant job losses in most advanced economies.

Important!

Australia’s economy entered a recession for the first time in 29 years in the first half of 2020, due to restrictions put in place to contain the Coronavirus pandemic.

However, the economy rebounded in the third quarter of 2020, with GDP increasing by 3.3% as restrictions eased and government stimulus funding had an impact on people’s spending.

The rebound effect post-COVID is one of the reasons cited for rising inflation, which has gripped the Australian economy (and numerous other economies globally) ever since.

(Related: AUD To Euro Forecast: More Surprises Ahead?)

What Happens If Australia Goes Into A Recession?

The word recession seems synonymous with ‘bad times,’ but at best, it’s an approximation of economic health.

When the economy stalls and starts to move backwards, we expect business profits to shrink and lots of people start losing their jobs.

That doesn’t fully characterise how Australia’s economy is behaving now.

However, while our GDP growth and unemployment numbers may not indicate a significant and lasting reduction in economic activity — it’s clear that for many Aussies, living standards are in decline and there’s no immediate sign of relief. 

Jody

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